Virginia early-voting tallies suggest large turnout edge for Romney!/Redistrict/status/263998641478443008

Many MSM polls continue to assume Democrat turnout in 2012 similar to (or better than) that in 2008:

New Q poll in Virginia that shows Obama up two points uses turnout model of D+8; Virginia in 2008 was D+6

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) October 31, 2012

WaPo Virginia poll with Obama up 4 is D+8 (was D+6 in 08, R+4 in 04). So yes, if Dems can outdo their 2008 WAVE election in turnout, O wins

— TheRightWing (@teapartiedUSA) October 28, 2012

But the Cook Political Report’s Virginia Absentees Tracker, updated yesterday, shows early voting has declined dramatically in Va. counties that supported Democrats in previous presidential elections:

  • Kerry 2004 localities: down 18.1%
  • Obama 2008 localities: down 13.6%

By contrast, early voting has held up well in GOP-leaning counties:

  • Bush 2004 localities: down 1.7%
  • McCain 2008 localities: down 1.2%

These data are not based on polls. These are actual ballots cast by actual voters.

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in ’08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in ’08)

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2012

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax – 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm…

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2012

VA EARLY VOTE: By no means does this spreadsheet spell doom for Obama in VA, it just shows ’12 ain’t at all ’08.…

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2012

In 2008, Obama won Virginia by 7 points, 53-46.

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